Sport Picks
Desportivo de Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
Mozambique
Mocambola 2025 
AI Match Summary
The Mocambola 2025 game between Desportivo de Nacala and Baia de Pemba finished 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
44%
20%
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
71%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Baia de Pemba come out ahead of Desportivo de Nacala on wins alone.
- 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Desportivo de Nacala Clean Sheet 20%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desportivo de Nacala | Baia de Pemba |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 25 |
| Wins | 2 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.6 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 14, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Desportivo de Nacala
0:0
Aug 24, 2025 Mocambola
Desportivo de Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Mocambola
Desportivo de Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
May 19, 2024 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Desportivo de Nacala
1:1
Aug 21, 2019 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Desportivo de Nacala
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desportivo de Nacala 36 / 100
Baia de Pemba 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desportivo de Nacala Baia de Pemba
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Baia de Pemba has conceded goals in 60% of their last 25 outings.
Attacking prowess: Desportivo de Nacala scored in 52% of their last 25 outings.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Desportivo de Nacala has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Desportivo de Nacala VS Baia de Pemba
0.2 Goals Scored 0.5
0.6 Goals Conceded 0.75
20% Over 1.5 25%
20% Over 2.5 25%
20% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Desportivo de Nacala
(Home) 23 Nov
Textafrica
3 : 1 Desportivo de Nacala
16 Nov
Desportivo Matola
2 : 1 Desportivo de Nacala
12 Nov
Ferroviario Maputo
1 : 0 Desportivo de Nacala
09 Nov
ENH Vilankulo
0 : 0 Desportivo de Nacala
24 Oct
Desportivo de Nacala
2 : 2 Ferroviario Lichinga
Page 1 of 5
24 Oct
Desportivo de Nacala
2 : 2 Ferroviario Lichinga
22 Sept
Desportivo de Nacala
1 : 1 Ferroviario Nampula
31 Aug
Desportivo de Nacala
0 : 0 Costa do Sol
24 Aug
Desportivo de Nacala
0 : 0 Baia de Pemba
16 Aug
Desportivo de Nacala
0 : 1 Textafrica
Page 1 of 3
Baia de Pemba
(Away) 25 Jul
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1 Ferroviario Beira
01 Jul
Chingale de Tete
0 : 0 Baia de Pemba
26 Jun
UD Songo
1 : 1 Baia de Pemba
18 Jun
Baia de Pemba
2 : 2 ENH Vilankulo
24 May
Ferroviario Lichinga
1 : 0 Baia de Pemba
Page 1 of 5
01 Jul
Chingale de Tete
0 : 0 Baia de Pemba
26 Jun
UD Songo
1 : 1 Baia de Pemba
24 May
Ferroviario Lichinga
1 : 0 Baia de Pemba
14 May
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 Baia de Pemba
10 May
Ferroviario Nampula
1 : 0 Baia de Pemba
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Songo | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 50:13 | 57 |
| 2 | Associacao Black Bulls | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 19:13 | 37 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 38:31 | 34 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Maputo | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 25:18 | 33 |
| 6 | Baia de Pemba | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 24:21 | 32 |
| 7 | ENH Vilankulo | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 22:21 | 31 |
| 8 | Costa do Sol | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 18:18 | 31 |
| 9 | Ferroviario Nacala | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 16:17 | 31 |
| 10 | Chingale de Tete | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:21 | 27 |
| 11 | Ferroviario Nampula | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:29 | 26 |
| 12 | Textafrica | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15:30 | 20 |
| 13 | Desportivo de Nacala | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13:31 | 12 |
| 14 | Desportivo Matola | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11:40 | 10 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)