Sport Picks
Match Events
45'
45'
Facundini T.
71'
71'
Moraes R.
78'
78'
Emanuel
AI Match Summary
Itapirense in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itapirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itapirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Itapirense haven't matched Desportivo's recent run of results.
- 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Desportivo Clean Sheet 23%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desportivo | Itapirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 21 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Itapirense
1:2
Feb 19, 2025 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Desportivo
2:3
Jan 27, 2024 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Itapirense
1:1
Mar 9, 2023 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Desportivo
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Desportivo Compare
Top Goalscorer Joao Sala
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Itapirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Facundini T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Moraes R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desportivo 37 / 100
Itapirense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desportivo Itapirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Itapirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Itapirense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.
Desportivo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Itapirense lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Desportivo VS Itapirense
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Desportivo
(Home) 21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 XV de Jau
14 Mar
Rio Preto EC
4 : 0 Desportivo
11 Mar
Catanduva FC
0 : 0 Desportivo
07 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 1 Uniao Barbarense
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 Itapirense
Page 1 of 6
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 XV de Jau
07 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 1 Uniao Barbarense
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 Itapirense
25 Feb
Desportivo
0 : 0 Uniao Sao Joao
14 Feb
Desportivo
1 : 1 Rio Branco SP
Page 1 of 4
Itapirense
(Away) 21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1 Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0 Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2 Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3 EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 Itapirense
Page 1 of 7
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0 Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2 Itapirense
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2 Itapirense
22 Feb
Portuguesa Santista
1 : 0 Itapirense
11 Feb
Uniao Suzano
3 : 1 Itapirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 26:9 | 36 |
| 2 | Marilia | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 23:6 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto EC | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24:13 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 16:11 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19:16 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16:14 | 24 |
| 7 | EC Sao Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:15 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20:13 | 23 |
| 9 | Uniao Sao Joao | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:15 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva FC | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 16:15 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 13:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 13:22 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14:26 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8:25 | 8 |
| 16 | Uniao Suzano | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10:28 | 5 |
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)
