Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Difai Agsu vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Musazada M.
8' Event
Abdullayev S.
31'
Musazada M.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Difai Agsu and Mingachevir finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Difai Agsu
20%
Draws
51%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Difai Agsu on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mingachevir's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mingachevir have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Difai Agsu Clean Sheet 10%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Difai Agsu Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 18 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
2:1
Dec 18, 2025 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Mingachevir
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
2:0
May 1, 2025 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Mingachevir
1:4
Feb 28, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Difai Agsu Compare

Top Goalscorer Musazada M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdullayev S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Difai Agsu 10 / 100
Mingachevir 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Difai Agsu Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mingachevir Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difai Agsu's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Mingachevir has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Difai Agsu went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Difai Agsu VS Mingachevir
0.5 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Difai Agsu

(Home)
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
14 May
Shimal
0 : 1
Difai Agsu
06 May
Difai Agsu
0 : 0
Safa Baku
30 Apr
Baku Sporting
1 : 1
Difai Agsu
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
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Mingachevir

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)