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Dire Dawa vs Bahir Dar Kenema

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Fithalew F.
59' Event
Tefera A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Dire Dawa and Bahir Dar Kenema finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bahir Dar Kenema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Dire Dawa
22%
Draws
18%
Bahir Dar Kenema
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Dire Dawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Dire Dawa have managed 0.63 goals a game lately — Bahir Dar Kenema are scoring more at 0.75.
  • Win probability leans Dire Dawa's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Dire Dawa Clean Sheet 68%
Bahir Dar Kenema Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dire Dawa Bahir Dar Kenema
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 13 18
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Dire Dawa vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:2
Jan 5, 2026 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Dire Dawa
0:0
May 24, 2025 Premier League
Dire Dawa vs Bahir Dar Kenema
2:1
Jan 4, 2025 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Dire Dawa
1:1
May 2, 2024 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Dire Dawa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dire Dawa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Bahir Dar Kenema Compare

Top Goalscorer Fithalew F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tefera A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dire Dawa 68 / 100
Bahir Dar Kenema 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dire Dawa Bahir Dar Kenema

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DIR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Solid form: Dire Dawa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Dire Dawa's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Bahir Dar Kenema has conceded goals in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dire Dawa VS Bahir Dar Kenema
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635