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Diriangen vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Cacique Diriangén
Sun, May 17, 2026
1 - 2
01:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Barrera J.
86' Event
Molina F.
1' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2025/2026 game between Diriangen and Esteli finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Diriangen
28%
Draws
50%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Diriangen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Esteli taking it.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Diriangen Clean Sheet 20%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diriangen Esteli
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 22 20
Draws 8 7
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:2
May 10, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:0
Feb 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diriangen Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrera J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diriangen 24 / 100
Esteli 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diriangen Esteli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diriangen found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (35 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Diriangen stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Esteli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Diriangen VS Esteli
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen-
TBD-
Managua FC2
Matagalpa4
Esteli-
TBD-
Jalapa3
Walter Ferreti0
Semi-finals
Diriangen4
Matagalpa1
Esteli3
Jalapa1
Final
Diriangen2
Esteli3