Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Diriangen vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Cacique Diriangén, Diriamba
Sun, May 17, 2026
1 - 2
01:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Barrera J.
86' Event
Molina F.
1' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Esteli advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Diriangen
30%
Draws
27%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diriangen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Diriangen's 1.97 goals per match outpaces what Esteli have produced (1.8).
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Diriangen taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Esteli, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Diriangen Clean Sheet 68%
Esteli Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diriangen Esteli
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 18
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1.97 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
0:2
May 17, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:2
May 10, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:0
Feb 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diriangen Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrera J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diriangen 68 / 100
Esteli 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diriangen Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diriangen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diriangen found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Diriangen remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Esteli has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Diriangen VS Esteli
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Diriangen

(Home)
10 Sept
Sport Sebaco
0 : 1
Diriangen
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
03 Sept
Managua FC
3 : 3
Diriangen
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Esteli
0 : 2
Diriangen
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen -
TBD -
Managua FC 2
Matagalpa 4
Esteli -
TBD -
Jalapa 3
Walter Ferreti 0
Semi-finals
Diriangen 4
Matagalpa 1
Esteli 3
Jalapa 1
Final
Diriangen 2
Esteli 3