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Diyala vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Matheus Firmino
Assist: Naeem A.
34' Event
Khudair M.
46' Event
Khudair M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Diyala and Al Gharraf finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Diyala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Diyala
30%
Draws
12%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Diyala come out ahead of Al Gharraf on wins alone.
  • Diyala are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Gharraf
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 7 8
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Gharraf
3:1
May 6, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Diyala
0:0
Jan 22, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Gharraf
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Khudair M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Firmino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 86 / 100
Al Gharraf 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Gharraf conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Diyala scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Diyala has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Gharraf
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

Al Gharraf

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)