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Diyala vs Al Najaf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Alaa S.
40' Event
Jasi M.
70' Event
Younes H.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Diyala and Al Najaf finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Najaf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Diyala
39%
Draws
31%
Al Najaf
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Diyala come out ahead of Al Najaf on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Najaf
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Najaf
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Diyala
0:1
May 2, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Najaf
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Diyala
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Younes H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Al Najaf Compare

Top Goalscorer Alaa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jasi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 41 / 100
Al Najaf 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Najaf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DIA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Najaf let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Diyala scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Diyala went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Najaf
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
01 Jun
Diyala
1 : 0
Duhok
27 May
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Diyala
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Diyala
0 : 2
Al Shorta
11 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Diyala
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Al Najaf

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)