Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Diyala vs Al Najaf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Alaa S.
40' Event
Jasi M.
70' Event
Younes H.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Diyala and Al Najaf finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Najaf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Diyala
30%
Draws
41%
Al Najaf
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Najaf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Diyala come out ahead of Al Najaf on wins alone.
  • Model gives Diyala a 29% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Najaf
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 4
Draws 6 5
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 1.07 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Najaf
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Diyala
0:1
May 2, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Najaf
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Diyala
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Younes H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Al Najaf Compare

Top Goalscorer Alaa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jasi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 68 / 100
Al Najaf 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Najaf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Najaf let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Diyala scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Diyala went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Najaf
1.13 Goals Scored 1.29
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 86%
63% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
25 Aug
Zakho
2 : 2
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Al Najaf

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)