Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Diyala vs Naft Missan Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Outtara S.
54' Event
Hassan M.
88'
Opare C.

AI Match Summary

Diyala in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Diyala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Diyala
35%
Draws
32%
Naft Missan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Naft Missan average 1.21 goals a game right now, well clear of Diyala's 1.07.
  • Model gives Diyala a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Diyala have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Diyala Clean Sheet 20%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Naft Missan
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Missan
1:0
Jan 5, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Diyala
1:1
Apr 21, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Diyala
0:1
Feb 3, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Missan
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Hassan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Naft Missan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 42 / 100
Naft Missan 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Naft Missan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diyala found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Naft Missan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Diyala went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Naft Missan
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

Naft Missan

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
29 Aug
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)