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Diyala vs Naft Missan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Sioud N.
Assist: Abdulsada M.
90'
Ahmed M.
90' Event
Jabbar Z.
Assist: Maraksi R.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Diyala and Naft Missan finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Diyala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Diyala
35%
Draws
19%
Naft Missan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Diyala come out ahead of Naft Missan on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Diyala's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Diyala have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Naft Missan
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Missan
2:0
Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Missan
1:0
Jan 5, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Diyala
1:1
Apr 21, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Diyala
0:1
Feb 3, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Missan
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Sioud N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jabbar Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Naft Missan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 77 / 100
Naft Missan 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Naft Missan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diyala found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Naft Missan let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Diyala stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Naft Missan
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
05 Nov
Diyala
0 : 0
Al Minaa
31 Oct
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Diyala
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Naft Missan

(Away)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
31 Oct
Naft Missan
0 : 0
Zakho
25 Oct
Ghaz Al Shamal
1 : 0
Naft Missan
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
08 Oct
Naft Missan
1 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)