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Diyala vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Komolafe P.
48'
Younes H.
67' Event
Khalid Abd-Alruhman A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Diyala
30%
Draws
34%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Newroz have won more games recently than Diyala.
  • Model gives Diyala a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Newroz here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Diyala Clean Sheet 16%
Newroz Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Newroz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Newroz
1:1
Jan 31, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Diyala
2:1
Feb 20, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Newroz
1:4
Jan 3, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Diyala
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalid Abd-Alruhman A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Komolafe P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 36 / 100
Newroz 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Diyala found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Newroz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Diyala has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Newroz
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
01 Jun
Diyala
1 : 0
Duhok
27 May
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Diyala
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Diyala
0 : 2
Al Shorta
11 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Newroz

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Newroz
2 : 1
Zakho
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)