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Dominica vs Antigua and Barbuda

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League ABFA Technical Centre
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Hughes T.
39'
Roberts C.
46'
Sub
Roberts C. In: Tomlinson S.
Out: Roberts C.

AI Match Summary

Dominica host Antigua and Barbuda in the CONCACAF Nations League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Dominica at 0.88 goals for, 2.5 against; Antigua and Barbuda at 0.13 for, 2 against. Head-to-head, Dominica have won 1 to Antigua and Barbuda's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Nov 19, 2024, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.44 - 1.31) back Dominica to edge this. Dominica in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Dominica
39%
Draws
31%
Antigua and Barbuda
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Dominica has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Antigua and Barbuda.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in CONCACAF Nations League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Dominica Clean Sheet 18%
Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dominica Antigua and Barbuda
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 0.88 0.13
Goals Conceded 2.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Dominica
0:0
Sep 7, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Dominica vs Antigua and Barbuda
2:1
Apr 1, 2018 Friendly International
Antigua and Barbuda vs Dominica
0:0
Mar 15, 2015 Friendly International
Antigua and Barbuda vs Dominica
1:0
Nov 12, 2010 Caribbean Cup
Antigua and Barbuda vs Dominica
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dominica Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertrand C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joseph T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Antigua and Barbuda Compare

Top Goalscorer Stevens J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dominica 31 / 100
Antigua and Barbuda 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dominica Antigua and Barbuda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DOM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dominica scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Antigua and Barbuda let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 0.80 goals.

Dominica went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Antigua and Barbuda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dominica VS Antigua and Barbuda
0.88 Goals Scored 0.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1El Salvador650112:615
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines641112:713
3Bonaire61144:84
4Montserrat61053:103
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Curacao641115:313
2Saint Lucia63037:159
3Grenada62137:67
4Saint Martin62048:136
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Haiti660029:518
2Puerto Rico630311:129
3Sint Maarten63037:189
4Aruba60065:170
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Dominican Republic660027:418
2Bermuda640215:1312
3Dominica61146:184
4Antigua and Barbuda60152:151