Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dongen vs Watergraafsmeer

Netherlands Netherlands

KNVB Beker
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Buis T.
57' Event
Binnekamp M.
63' Event
Binnekamp M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-4. This leg finished 2-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dongen
15%
Draws
49%
Watergraafsmeer
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Watergraafsmeer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Watergraafsmeer haven't matched Dongen's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Dongen's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Dongen have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Watergraafsmeer, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Dongen Clean Sheet 19%
Watergraafsmeer Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dongen Watergraafsmeer
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 4 4
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 1.58 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.26 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 KNVB Beker
Dongen vs Watergraafsmeer
2:4
Mar 12, 2023 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs Dongen
0:3
Sep 25, 2022 Derde Divisie
Dongen vs Watergraafsmeer
2:3
May 8, 2022 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs Dongen
3:2
Aug 22, 2021 Derde Divisie
Dongen vs Watergraafsmeer
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dongen Compare

Top Goalscorer de Leeuw T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Haddouchi N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Watergraafsmeer Compare

Top Goalscorer Buis T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Binnekamp M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dongen 49 / 100
Watergraafsmeer 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dongen Watergraafsmeer

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dongen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dongen's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Watergraafsmeer let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Watergraafsmeer registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dongen VS Watergraafsmeer
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dongen

(Home)
20 Sept
Blauw Geel
3 : 1
Dongen
13 Sept
Dongen
2 : 3
GOES
05 Sept
Rijnvogels
5 : 2
Dongen
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 Aug
Dongen
3 : 2
Gemert
Page 1 of 7

Watergraafsmeer

(Away)
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 May
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 3
NEO
27 May
NEO
3 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
07 Jun
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 2
Excelsior 31
04 Jun
Excelsior 31
1 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
USV Hercules 1
EVV 3
HVV Hollandia 2
RKSV Halsteren 3
Rijnvogels 5
VV Bennekom 0
VVSB 2
Ajax (Am) 0
Sportlust 3
Blauw Geel 1
ADO 20 Heemskerk 1
Excelsior Maassluis 2
Longa '30 0
Koninklijke HFC 4
Surhusterfean 1
VV DOVO 2
Harkemase Boys 0
Excelsior 31 1
Alkmaarse FC 1934 4
VV Scherpenzeel 1
RKAV Volendam -
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Spakenburg -
NSVV 2
VV Kloetinge 4
Achilles Veen 4
SV Poortugaal 2
Mierlo-Hout 2
Germania Groesbeek 3
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Groene Ster 2
VV Heerjansdam 1
Be Quick 1887 0
AFC 2
GOES 0
VV Noordwijk 1
HZVV Hoogeveen 0
Frisia 4
ACV Assen 6
Westlandia 1
VV Hoogeveen 3
SVZW Wierden 2
Lierop 0
VV Zwaluwen 7
Purmersteijn 4
RKVV Zwaluw 3
Staphorst 3
UNA 2
Genemuiden 2
Lisse 1
Elinkwijk 0
Eemdijk 3
GSV 28 0
Roosendaal 4
Sparta Nijkerk 2
Venray 0
Rkvv Spartaan 20 0
RKSV UDI 19 5
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FC 's-Gravenzande 0
Gemert 2
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ATC 65 1
DVS '33 Ermelo 2
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Watergraafsmeer 4
TEC 4
Almkerk 2
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EVV 3
RKSV Halsteren 1
Rijnvogels 0
VVSB 1
Sportlust 0
Excelsior Maassluis 2
Koninklijke HFC 3
VV DOVO 1
Excelsior 31 4
Alkmaarse FC 1934 3
RKAV Volendam 3
Spakenburg 2
VV Kloetinge 8
Achilles Veen 0
Germania Groesbeek -
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Groene Ster 1
AFC 6
VV Noordwijk 1
Frisia 0
ACV Assen 2
VV Hoogeveen 1
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Purmersteijn -
Staphorst 2
Genemuiden 3
Eemdijk 2
Roosendaal 1
Sparta Nijkerk -
RKSV UDI 19 -
IJsselmeervogels -
Gemert -
GVVV 4
DVS '33 Ermelo 0
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Rohda Raalte -
Hardenberg 0
Barendrecht 1
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