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Dorchester vs Arlesey

England England

Southern Premier League 2014/2015
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
42' Event
60' Event

AI Match Summary

The Southern Premier League 2014/2015 game between Dorchester and Arlesey finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dorchester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Dorchester
15%
Draws
0%
Arlesey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dorchester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dorchester come out ahead of Arlesey on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Dorchester taking it.
  • Regular Southern Premier League 2014/2015 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Dorchester Clean Sheet 20%
Arlesey Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorchester Arlesey
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 1.26 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2015 Southern Premier League
Dorchester vs Arlesey
3:1
Aug 9, 2014 Southern Premier League
Arlesey vs Dorchester
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorchester 85 / 100
Arlesey 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorchester Arlesey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dorchester Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dorchester scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Arlesey let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Arlesey has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Dorchester VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorchester

(Home)
19 Sept
Dorchester
0 : 2
Oxford City
05 Sept
Brixham
2 : 3
Dorchester
29 Aug
Larkhall
2 : 1
Dorchester
25 Apr
Dorchester
0 : 4
Sholing
18 Apr
Hungerford
0 : 0
Dorchester
Page 1 of 7

Arlesey

(Away)
30 Aug
Eynesbury Rovers
3 : 1
Arlesey
15 Jul
Arlesey
0 : 4
Hendon
04 Sept
Arlesey
0 : 5
Bowers & Pitsea
07 Sept
Hadley
3 : 2
Arlesey
28 Oct
Needham Market
3 : 1
Arlesey
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Corby 44 29 7 8 86:47 94
2 Poole Town 44 28 7 9 84:35 91
3 Truro 44 27 5 12 83:58 86
4 Hungerford 44 22 13 9 64:36 79
5 Neots 44 20 16 8 82:58 76
6 Redditch 44 21 12 11 73:44 75
7 Weymouth 44 22 7 15 71:71 73
8 Cirencester 44 20 12 12 77:54 72
9 Hitchin 44 20 10 14 78:63 70
10 Paulton Rovers 44 18 10 16 65:62 64
11 Chippenham Town 44 16 13 15 54:54 61
12 Chesham 44 16 12 16 79:72 60
13 Cambridge City 44 14 15 15 71:62 57
14 Dunstable Town 44 16 9 19 71:78 57
15 Bideford 44 16 7 21 66:85 55
16 Slough Town 44 13 12 19 66:88 51
17 Dorchester 44 14 8 22 63:74 50
18 Histon 44 13 10 21 53:74 49
19 Biggleswade Town 44 11 12 21 57:75 45
20 Frome Town 44 10 11 23 49:80 41
21 Banbury 44 9 10 25 53:86 37
22 Arlesey 44 10 6 28 43:84 36
23 Burnham FC 44 5 8 31 41:89 20
Promotion - National League South 2015/2016 (Main)
Promotion - Southern Premier League 2014/2015 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Southern Premier League 2014/2015 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Southern Premier League 2014/2015 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Southern Premier League 2014/2015 (Play Offs)