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Dordrecht vs Venlo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dordrecht host Venlo in the Eerste Divisie. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Venlo have shipped 1.74 goals a game lately, while Dordrecht have conceded 2.14 and scored 1.32. Past meetings favor Dordrecht slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 19, 2025, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 2.75, favoring Venlo. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Dordrecht
20%
Draws
57%
Venlo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Venlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Dordrecht haven't matched Venlo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Venlo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Dordrecht have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Dordrecht Clean Sheet 10%
Venlo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dordrecht Venlo
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.32 1.97
Goals Conceded 2.14 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 19, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Dordrecht
3:1
Oct 3, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Dordrecht vs Venlo
2:0
Mar 14, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Dordrecht vs Venlo
4:0
Oct 18, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Dordrecht
2:3
Feb 16, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Dordrecht vs Venlo
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dordrecht 10 / 100
Venlo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dordrecht Venlo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Venlo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Venlo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Dordrecht's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Dordrecht stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dordrecht VS Venlo
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
3 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Dordrecht

(Home)
09 Oct
Dordrecht
0 : 3
FC Emmen
03 Oct
Den Bosch
1 : 1
Dordrecht
25 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 2
Almere City
18 Sept
TOP Oss
3 : 0
Dordrecht
11 Sept
Eindhoven FC
2 : 1
Dordrecht
Page 1 of 6

Venlo

(Away)
16 Oct
Venlo
4 : 4
Jong AZ Alkmaar
09 Oct
Jong Ajax
0 : 3
Venlo
04 Oct
Venlo
2 : 0
Roda
26 Sept
FC Volendam
3 : 2
Venlo
18 Sept
Jong Utrecht
1 : 3
Venlo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 10 8 1 1 31:12 25
2 Almere City 10 7 1 2 22:7 22
3 Venlo 11 7 1 3 30:18 22
4 NAC Breda 11 6 2 3 22:19 20
5 FC Emmen 10 6 1 3 22:18 19
6 Vitesse 11 5 2 4 16:15 17
7 Roda 10 4 4 2 10:8 16
8 Maastricht 10 5 1 4 13:20 16
9 FC Volendam 10 5 0 5 22:17 15
10 Waalwijk 10 3 5 2 19:15 14
11 Jong AZ Alkmaar 11 4 2 5 26:22 14
12 Den Bosch 11 4 2 5 16:19 14
13 Jong PSV 10 3 4 3 15:17 13
14 TOP Oss 11 4 0 7 16:17 12
15 De Graafschap 10 3 2 5 13:23 11
16 Eindhoven FC 11 3 2 6 15:23 11
17 Helmond Sport 11 2 3 6 16:21 9
18 Jong Ajax 10 2 2 6 13:25 8
19 Dordrecht 10 2 2 6 13:27 8
20 Jong Utrecht 10 2 1 7 16:23 7
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)