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Dorense vs Lagarto

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Dorense Logo

Dorense

1 - 5
FT
Lagarto Logo

Lagarto

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Lucas Bessa
36' Event
Erik Gabriel
62' Event
Aldair
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lagarto in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lagarto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dorense
15%
Draws
49%
Lagarto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lagarto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagarto lately — more wins on the board than Dorense.
  • Model gives Lagarto a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Dorense Clean Sheet 20%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorense Lagarto
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 9 13
Draws 5 11
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Sergipano
Dorense vs Lagarto
1:5
Jan 26, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Dorense
1:1
Feb 3, 2024 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Dorense
3:1
Feb 4, 2023 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Dorense
4:1
Jan 11, 2020 Sergipano
Dorense vs Lagarto
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dorense Compare

Top Goalscorer Aldair
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Lagarto Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Bessa
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erik Gabriel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorense 10 / 100
Lagarto 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorense Lagarto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagarto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Dorense scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Lagarto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 34 matches.

Lagarto lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lagarto
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorense

(Home)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Lagarto

(Away)
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)