Sport Picks
Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
Germany
DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund 
Match Events
34'
34'
Maza I.
Assist: Grimaldo A.
60'
60'
Terrier M.
61'
61'
Sub
Kofane C. In: Schick P.
Out: Kofane C.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Bayer Leverkusen advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dortmund
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Dortmund carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Dortmund's way, sitting at 40%.
- Dortmund have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Bayer Leverkusen, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 13%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 15 |
| Draws | 2 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 2.1 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:1
Dec 2, 2025 DFB Pokal
Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Dortmund
1:2
May 11, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Dortmund
2:4
Jan 10, 2025 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dortmund Compare
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Top Goalscorer Maza I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dortmund 39 / 100
Bayer Leverkusen 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Dortmund Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dortmund scored in 90% of their last 30 games.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Dortmund remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Defensive concern: Bayer Leverkusen conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Dortmund VS Bayer Leverkusen
2.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Dortmund
(Home) 19 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
0 : 1 Dortmund
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0 Paderborn
08 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 2 Villarreal
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3 Dortmund
01 Sept
HEBC Hamburg
0 : 5 Dortmund
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0 Paderborn
08 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 2 Villarreal
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0 Hamburger
22 Aug
Dortmund
1 : 2 Bayern Munich
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2 AS Roma
Page 1 of 3
Bayer Leverkusen
(Away) 20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 RB Leipzig
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4 Bayer Leverkusen
15 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
12 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0
