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Dortmund vs Bayern Munich - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Super Cup Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Brown N.
Assist: Olise M.
42'
Bensebaini R.
45'
Diaz L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Dortmund
30%
Draws
32%
Bayern Munich
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dortmund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Bayern Munich have won more games recently than Dortmund.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Bayern Munich taking it.
  • Bayern Munich arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Bayern Munich, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 10%
Bayern Munich Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dortmund Bayern Munich
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 20
Draws 4 7
Losses 7 2
Goals Scored 1.9 3.48
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 31, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund
2:2
Aug 22, 2026 Super Cup
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dortmund Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Bayern Munich Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Olise M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dortmund 26 / 100
Bayern Munich 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dortmund Bayern Munich

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayern Munich Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dortmund scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Dortmund stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Bayern Munich conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Dortmund VS Bayern Munich
1.38 Goals Scored 3.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Dortmund

(Home)
04 Nov
Dortmund
2 : 1
Betis
31 Oct
Bayern Munich
2 : 2
Dortmund
27 Oct
Dortmund
3 : 2
Werder Bremen
24 Oct
Dortmund
1 : 0
Eintracht Frankfurt
20 Oct
Sabah FC
1 : 2
Dortmund
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Bayern Munich

(Away)
03 Nov
Atl. Madrid
0 : 2
Bayern Munich
31 Oct
Bayern Munich
2 : 2
Dortmund
28 Oct
Bayern Munich
6 : 1
Magdeburg
25 Oct
Freiburg
1 : 3
Bayern Munich
21 Oct
Bayern Munich
2 : 2
Arsenal
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Bayern Munich 2
Dortmund 1