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Dortmund vs Werder Bremen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Werder Bremen have shipped 1.46 goals a game lately, while Dortmund have conceded 1.14 and scored 2.07. Head-to-head, Dortmund have won 3 to Werder Bremen's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on May 16, 2026, ending 0:2. xG projections (1.94 - 1.50) back Dortmund to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Dortmund
15%
Draws
34%
Werder Bremen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dortmund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dortmund lately — more wins on the board than Werder Bremen.
  • Win probability leans Dortmund's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 16%
Werder Bremen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dortmund Werder Bremen
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 19 11
Draws 2 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2.07 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Dortmund
0:2
Jan 13, 2026 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
3:0
Jan 25, 2025 Bundesliga
Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
2:2
Aug 31, 2024 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Dortmund
0:0
Mar 9, 2024 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Dortmund
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dortmund 84 / 100
Werder Bremen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dortmund Werder Bremen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dortmund Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dortmund scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Werder Bremen has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Dortmund remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Dortmund VS Werder Bremen
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Dortmund

(Home)
19 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
0 : 1
Dortmund
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
08 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 2
Villarreal
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Dortmund
01 Sept
HEBC Hamburg
0 : 5
Dortmund
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Werder Bremen

(Away)
19 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 2
Augsburg
12 Sept
1. FC Koln
1 : 1
Werder Bremen
05 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 1
RB Leipzig
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Werder Bremen
22 Aug
Luneburger Hansa
0 : 3
Werder Bremen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)