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Dourados vs Nautico MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Sun, Mar 5, 2023
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dourados host Nautico MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2023. Dourados are expected to control this from the start. Recent numbers: Dourados at 1.43 goals for, 1.13 against; Nautico MS at 0.75 for, 2.63 against. Head-to-head, Dourados have won 0 to Nautico MS's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Mar 5, 2023, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.42 vs 1.13, favoring Dourados. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Dourados
20%
Draws
0%
Nautico MS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dourados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Dourados carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Dourados taking it.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Dourados Clean Sheet 20%
Nautico MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dourados Nautico MS
Matches Played 30 8
Wins 11 0
Draws 11 0
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.43 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Nautico MS
0:0
Feb 5, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Nautico MS vs Dourados
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dourados 85 / 100
Nautico MS 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dourados Nautico MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dourados Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico MS let in goals in 100% of their last 8 matches.

Difficult form: Nautico MS registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Dourados's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Dourados stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dourados VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dourados

(Home)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 6

Nautico MS

(Away)
03 Mar
Nautico MS
1 : 3
Coxim
29 Feb
Nautico MS
3 : 4
Pantanal
17 Feb
Costa Rica
2 : 0
Nautico MS
14 Feb
Operario MS
2 : 0
Nautico MS
04 Feb
Coxim
3 : 1
Nautico MS
Page 1 of 2

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)