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D.R. Congo vs Mali

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stade de la Source, Orléans
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
Bongonda T. In: Wissa Y.
Out: Bongonda T.
27'
27' Event
Essende S.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between D.R. Congo and Mali finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward D.R. Congo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
D.R. Congo
30%
Draws
39%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and D.R. Congo come out ahead of Mali on wins alone.
  • 31% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
D.R. Congo Clean Sheet 68%
Mali Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric D.R. Congo Mali
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 13
Draws 4 11
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.72 0.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.05 0.41
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 Friendly International
D.R. Congo vs Mali
1:0
Jan 10, 2023 Friendly International
Mali vs D.R. Congo
1:0
Jun 11, 2021 Friendly International
D.R. Congo vs Mali
1:1
Feb 7, 2016 African Nations Championship
D.R. Congo vs Mali
3:0
Jan 28, 2013 Africa Cup of Nations
D.R. Congo vs Mali
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

D.R. Congo Compare

Top Goalscorer Essende S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.53

Mali Compare

Avg xG / game 0.37
Avg xA / game 0.23

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

D.R. Congo 41 / 100
Mali 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
D.R. Congo Mali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick D.R. Congo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

D.R. Congo's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Mali has conceded goals in 45% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: D.R. Congo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

D.R. Congo VS Mali
1.25 Goals Scored 0.57
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.86
50% Over 1.5 57%
13% Over 2.5 14%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

D.R. Congo

(Home)
01 Jul
England
2 : 1
D.R. Congo
27 Jun
D.R. Congo
3 : 1
Uzbekistan
24 Jun
Colombia
1 : 0
D.R. Congo
17 Jun
Portugal
1 : 1
D.R. Congo
09 Jun
D.R. Congo
1 : 2
Chile
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Mali

(Away)
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
09 Jan
Mali
0 : 1
Senegal
03 Jan
Mali
2 : 1
Tunisia
29 Dec
Comoros
0 : 0
Mali
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