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Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Espinosa Garcia D. Y.
11' Event
35' Event
Perez A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Premier Serie A game between Dragones de Oaxaca and Real Refineros finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dragones de Oaxaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Dragones de Oaxaca
20%
Draws
33%
Real Refineros
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dragones de Oaxaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dragones de Oaxaca come out ahead of Real Refineros on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Dragones de Oaxaca taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Dragones de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 20%
Real Refineros Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
Matches Played 26 6
Wins 10 2
Draws 8 1
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.5 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.08 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dragones de Oaxaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Espinosa Garcia D. Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Perez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Real Refineros Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dragones de Oaxaca 58 / 100
Real Refineros 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dragones de Oaxaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Dragones de Oaxaca's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Defensive concern: Real Refineros conceded in 67% of 6 recent games.

Dragones de Oaxaca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dragones de Oaxaca VS Real Refineros
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dragones de Oaxaca

(Home)
04 Oct
Dragones de Oaxaca
3 : 2
Real Refineros
27 Sept
CD Delfines Coatzacoalcos
4 : 3
Dragones de Oaxaca
20 Sept
Dragones de Oaxaca
3 : 0
Canoneros FC
13 Sept
Acambaro
1 : 1
Dragones de Oaxaca
06 Sept
Dragones de Oaxaca
2 : 1
Halcones Negros
Page 1 of 6

Real Refineros

(Away)
04 Oct
Dragones de Oaxaca
3 : 2
Real Refineros
25 Sept
Real Refineros
3 : 4
Ciervos
20 Sept
CD Delfines Coatzacoalcos
2 : 3
Real Refineros
12 Sept
Real Refineros
0 : 0
Calor De San Pedro
06 Sept
Canoneros FC
0 : 1
Real Refineros
Page 1 of 2

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 4 0 2 15:8 13
2 Zapotlanejo 6 4 1 1 10:6 13
3 Vaqueros 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
4 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 3 2 1 8:2 11
5 Correcaminos 2 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
6 Guerreros de Autlan 6 2 1 3 10:12 8
7 Saltillo Soccer F.C. 6 3 0 3 9:15 8
8 FC Santiago 6 2 1 3 9:7 7
9 Apodaca 6 1 1 4 7:12 4
10 Heroes de Zaci 6 0 1 5 3:12 2
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artesanos Metepec 6 6 0 0 16:4 19
2 Dragones de Oaxaca 6 4 1 1 14:7 15
3 Halcones Negros 6 3 1 2 17:4 11
4 Acambaro 6 3 1 2 16:8 10
5 CD Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
6 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 2 1 2 4:4 8
7 Calor De San Pedro 5 2 1 2 7:12 8
8 Real Refineros 6 2 1 3 9:10 7
9 Ciervos 6 1 0 5 3:19 2
10 Canoneros FC 6 0 0 6 1:19 0
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs)