Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Match Events

82'

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dragones Toluca host Deportiva Venados in the Liga Premier Serie A. Deportiva Venados go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Dragones Toluca at 0.83 goals for, 2.17 against; Deportiva Venados at 2.25 for, 0.75 against. Past meetings favor Deportiva Venados slightly — 0-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 28, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 0.79 vs 2.21, favoring Deportiva Venados. Deportiva Venados in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Dragones Toluca

Draws

90%

Deportiva Venados

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Deportiva Venados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Deportiva Venados has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Dragones Toluca.
Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Deportiva Venados.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Premier Serie A provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Dragones Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Deportiva Venados Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dragones Toluca	Deportiva Venados
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	4	19
Draws	3	7
Losses	23	4
Goals Scored	0.83	2.25
Goals Conceded	2.17	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.83	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.17	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Dragones Toluca vs Deportiva Venados

Possession: 53% - 40% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Nov 15, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Deportiva Venados vs Dragones Toluca

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 0 - 2

8:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dragones Toluca 10 / 100

Deportiva Venados 85 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dragones Toluca Deportiva Venados

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dragones Toluca scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Deportiva Venados let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Dragones Toluca went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Deportiva Venados lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dragones Toluca VS Deportiva Venados

0.83 Goals Scored 2.25

2.17 Goals Conceded 0.75

67% Over 1.5 50%

67% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17