Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Drogheda vs Derry City

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Sullivan & Lambe Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Drogheda play Derry City in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Drogheda averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. Derry City averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Drogheda won 2, Derry City won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 26, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Drogheda and 1.44 for Derry City. This points to a Derry City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Drogheda
35%
Draws
34%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Drogheda picked up more points recently compared to Derry City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Drogheda Clean Sheet 16%
Derry City Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Drogheda Derry City
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 6 8
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.23 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Drogheda
2:0
May 8, 2026 Premier Division
Drogheda vs Derry City
1:0
Mar 20, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Drogheda
2:2
Sep 26, 2025 Premier Division
Drogheda vs Derry City
1:1
Aug 16, 2025 FAI Cup
Derry City vs Drogheda
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Drogheda 31 / 100
Derry City 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Drogheda Derry City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Derry City or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Drogheda attacking → ← attacking Derry City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Drogheda scored in 81% of their last 26 games.

Derry City let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Drogheda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Derry City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 35
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720