Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Drogheda vs Dundalk

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Sullivan & Lambe Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Drogheda play Dundalk in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Drogheda averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Dundalk averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Drogheda won 0, Dundalk won 1, and they drew 4. Their last match on May 22, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Drogheda and 1.75 for Dundalk. This points to a Dundalk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Drogheda
35%
Draws
40%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Dundalk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Drogheda picked up more points recently compared to Dundalk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Drogheda Clean Sheet 12%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Drogheda Dundalk
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 6 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.27 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Premier Division
Drogheda vs Dundalk
1:1
Feb 20, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Drogheda
1:1
Jan 30, 2026 Club Friendly
Drogheda vs Dundalk
0:0
Jan 31, 2025 Club Friendly
Dundalk vs Drogheda
1:0
Nov 1, 2024 Premier Division
Drogheda vs Dundalk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Drogheda Compare

Top Goalscorer Burney L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Arubi G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Drogheda 25 / 100
Dundalk 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Drogheda Dundalk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dundalk or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Drogheda attacking → ← attacking Dundalk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Drogheda scored in 85% of their last 26 games.

Dundalk let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Drogheda went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dundalk lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 45
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers24145538:2147
2Bohemians24117638:2740
3St. Patricks22115635:1938
4Dundalk2298536:3235
5Shelbourne23710633:3431
6Derry City24611730:2729
7Galway United2166929:3424
8Drogheda22571027:3822
9Sligo Rovers22551217:3520
10Waterford22381128:4417