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Drogheda vs UC Dublin

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Club Friendly encounter between Drogheda and UC Dublin promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Drogheda averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded in recent matches. UC Dublin shows a form average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Drogheda, 0 wins for UC Dublin, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 20.01.26 ended in a 1:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.25 for Drogheda and 1.81 for UC Dublin, suggesting the primary value lies in the UC Dublin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Drogheda
24%
Draws
40%
UC Dublin
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: UC Dublin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Drogheda picked up more points recently compared to UC Dublin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Drogheda Clean Sheet 11%
UC Dublin Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Drogheda UC Dublin
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 6 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

20.01.26 Club Friendly
Drogheda vs UC Dublin
1:1
01.09.23 Premier Division
Drogheda vs UC Dublin
3:0
14.07.23 Premier Division
UC Dublin vs Drogheda
1:3
26.05.23 Premier Division
Drogheda vs UC Dublin
3:1
10.03.23 Premier Division
UC Dublin vs Drogheda
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Drogheda

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

UC Dublin

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Drogheda Compare

Top Goalscorer Oluwa T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

UC Dublin Compare

Top Goalscorer Cailloce K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Drogheda 35 / 100
UC Dublin 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Drogheda UC Dublin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UC Dublin or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Drogheda 40%
UC Dublin 32%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Drogheda 34%
UC Dublin 42%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Drogheda 36%
UC Dublin 40%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Drogheda 38%
UC Dublin 38%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Drogheda 32%
UC Dublin 44%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Drogheda 41%
UC Dublin 46%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Drogheda attacking → ← attacking UC Dublin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Drogheda have found the net in 85% of their last 26 matches.

UC Dublin have conceded at least one goal in 64% of their last 28 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Drogheda remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

UC Dublin suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Friendly match context where both Drogheda and UC Dublin will focus on tactical prep rather than league table pressure.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 41
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38