Sport Picks

Scotland

Challenge Cup Dumbarton Football Stadium

Kelty Hearts

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dumbarton play Kelty Hearts in the Challenge Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dumbarton averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Kelty Hearts averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Dumbarton won 2, Kelty Hearts won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 23, 2025 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Dumbarton and 1.75 for Kelty Hearts. This points to a Dumbarton double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Dumbarton

30%

Draws

34%

Kelty Hearts

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dumbarton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Dumbarton picked up more points recently compared to Kelty Hearts.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Dumbarton Clean Sheet 12%

Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dumbarton	Kelty Hearts
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	6	6
Draws	7	8
Losses	17	15
Goals Scored	1.03	0.93
Goals Conceded	2.07	1.69
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2025 Challenge Cup

Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts

Possession: 46% - 51% Cards: 0 - 0

3:3

Apr 5, 2025 League One

Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 2 - 2

0:6

Dec 28, 2024 League One

Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Nov 9, 2024 League One

Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton

Possession: 60% - 53% Cards: 0 - 1

2:0

Aug 31, 2024 League One

Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 2 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Honeyman S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Wallace T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Kelty Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Cole R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 35 / 100

Kelty Hearts 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dumbarton Kelty Hearts

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dumbarton or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dumbarton attacking → ← attacking Kelty Hearts

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Kelty Hearts let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Dumbarton went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Kelty Hearts lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 26

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inverness	6	6	0	0	26:4	18
2	Stenhousemuir	6	6	0	0	18:2	18
3	Montrose	6	5	1	0	18:9	16
4	East Fife	6	4	1	1	17:9	13
5	Stranraer	6	4	1	1	12:6	13
6	East Kilbride	6	4	0	2	13:11	12
7	Forfar Athletic	6	4	0	2	10:8	12
8	Edinburgh City	6	4	0	2	11:10	12
9	Spartans	6	3	2	1	14:8	11
10	Elgin City	6	3	2	1	11:9	11
11	Dumbarton	6	3	2	1	10:8	11
12	Annan	6	3	1	2	15:10	10
13	Alloa	6	3	1	2	17:14	10
14	Kelty Hearts	6	3	1	2	9:6	10
15	Clyde	6	3	1	2	14:12	10
16	Queen of the South	6	3	1	2	12:10	10
17	Hamilton	6	3	1	2	13:8	9
18	Stirling	6	3	0	3	9:9	9
19	Cove Rangers	6	2	2	2	9:6	8
20	Peterhead	6	2	2	2	10:10	8
21	Celtic B	6	2	0	4	12:15	6
22	Hearts B	6	2	0	4	9:14	6
23	Hibernian B	6	1	2	3	11:14	5
24	St. Mirren B	6	1	1	4	9:15	4
25	Dundee Utd B	6	1	0	5	5:18	3
26	Aberdeen B	6	0	1	5	9:20	1
27	Motherwell B	6	0	1	5	2:17	1
28	Rangers B	6	0	0	6	6:16	0
29	Kilmarnock B	6	0	0	6	3:19	0
30	Dundee FC B	6	0	0	6	4:21	0