Sport Picks
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
Scotland
Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Dumbarton Football Stadium, Dumbarton 
Match Events
20'
20'
Honeyman S.
25'
25'
Arnott A.
(Penalty)
26'
26'
Cole R.
Assist: Johnston C.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Challenge Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-3. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dumbarton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Dumbarton haven't matched Kelty Hearts's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Kelty Hearts arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Dumbarton, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dumbarton | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 16 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 23, 2025 Challenge Cup
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
3:3
Apr 5, 2025 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
0:6
Dec 28, 2024 League One
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
2:0
Nov 9, 2024 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
2:0
Aug 31, 2024 League One
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dumbarton Compare
Top Goalscorer Honeyman S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Wallace T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Kelty Hearts Compare
Top Goalscorer Cole R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dumbarton 30 / 100
Kelty Hearts 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dumbarton Kelty Hearts
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kelty Hearts Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Kelty Hearts conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Dumbarton scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Difficult form: Kelty Hearts registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Dumbarton VS Kelty Hearts
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Dumbarton
(Home) 15 Aug
Dumbarton
0 : 3 Edinburgh City
11 Aug
Dumbarton
1 : 3 Airdrieonians
08 Aug
Dumbarton
1 : 0 Clyde
01 Aug
Stirling
2 : 0 Dumbarton
25 Jul
Dumbarton
2 : 0 Cove Rangers
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Dumbarton
0 : 3 Edinburgh City
11 Aug
Dumbarton
1 : 3 Airdrieonians
08 Aug
Dumbarton
1 : 0 Clyde
25 Jul
Dumbarton
2 : 0 Cove Rangers
11 Jul
Dumbarton
0 : 4 St. Mirren
Page 1 of 4
Kelty Hearts
(Away) 15 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 1 Kelty Hearts
11 Aug
Kelty Hearts
4 : 3 Motherwell B
08 Aug
Kelty Hearts
3 : 2 Stirling
01 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0 Kelty Hearts
25 Jul
Aberdeen
3 : 0 Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 1 Kelty Hearts
01 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0 Kelty Hearts
25 Jul
Aberdeen
3 : 0 Kelty Hearts
11 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2 Kelty Hearts
27 Jun
East Kilbride
4 : 0 Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26:4 | 18 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:2 | 18 |
| 3 | Montrose | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18:9 | 16 |
| 4 | East Fife | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17:9 | 13 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | 13 |
| 6 | East Kilbride | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:10 | 12 |
| 9 | Spartans | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 11 |
| 10 | Elgin City | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 11 | Dumbarton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 11 |
| 12 | Annan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 10 |
| 13 | Alloa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:14 | 10 |
| 14 | Kelty Hearts | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 15 | Clyde | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14:12 | 10 |
| 16 | Queen of the South | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:10 | 10 |
| 17 | Hamilton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 9 |
| 18 | Stirling | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9:9 | 9 |
| 19 | Cove Rangers | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterhead | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 21 | Celtic B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:15 | 6 |
| 22 | Hearts B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:14 | 6 |
| 23 | Hibernian B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11:14 | 5 |
| 24 | St. Mirren B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 25 | Dundee Utd B | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5:18 | 3 |
| 26 | Aberdeen B | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9:20 | 1 |
| 27 | Motherwell B | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2:17 | 1 |
| 28 | Rangers B | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 0 |
| 29 | Kilmarnock B | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3:19 | 0 |
| 30 | Dundee FC B | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4:21 | 0 |
Promotion - Challenge Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
