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Dundalk vs Castlebar Celtic - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup Oriel Park, Dundalk
Dundalk Logo

Dundalk

8 - 0
FT
Castlebar Celtic Logo

Castlebar Celtic

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Dillon C.
(Penalty)
10' Event
Burns B.
42'
Cocozza J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 8-0. This leg finished 8-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Dundalk
15%
Draws
76%
Castlebar Celtic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castlebar Celtic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Dundalk have won more games recently than Castlebar Celtic.
  • 76% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Dundalk have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Dundalk, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 20%
Castlebar Celtic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Castlebar Celtic
Matches Played 29 12
Wins 10 5
Draws 7 0
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.76 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.42
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 FAI Cup
Dundalk vs Castlebar Celtic
8:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulligan L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Burns B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.41

Castlebar Celtic Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 36 / 100
Castlebar Celtic 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Castlebar Celtic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castlebar Celtic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 8.00 goals.

Castlebar Celtic let in goals in 75% of their last 12 matches.

Recent resilience: Dundalk stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS Castlebar Celtic
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Dundalk

(Home)
02 Oct
Dundalk
1 : 2
Bohemians
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
Page 1 of 6

Castlebar Celtic

(Away)
15 Aug
Dundalk
8 : 0
Castlebar Celtic
18 Jul
Douglas Hall
0 : 1
Castlebar Celtic
16 May
Castlebar Celtic
3 : 0
North End United
20 Jul
Castlebar Celtic
3 : 6
Longford
11 May
North End United
1 : 4
Castlebar Celtic
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians 0
Waterford 2
Galway United 0
Derry City 2
Final
Waterford -
Derry City -