Sport Picks

Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park

Dundalk

2 - 1

Derry City

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Horgan D.

Assist: Kenny E.

39'

Thomas J.

45'

Fleming B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dundalk in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dundalk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Dundalk

30%

Draws

34%

Derry City

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dundalk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Dundalk lately — more wins on the board than Derry City.
Dundalk are the model's pick here, at 36%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%

Dundalk Clean Sheet 17%

Derry City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dundalk	Derry City
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	12	8
Draws	8	11
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.63	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Premier Division

Dundalk vs Derry City

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Apr 10, 2026 Premier Division

Dundalk vs Derry City

Possession: 49% - 58% Cards: 4 - 1

2:2

Feb 13, 2026 Premier Division

Derry City vs Dundalk

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

2:2

Oct 18, 2024 Premier Division

Dundalk vs Derry City

Possession: 48% - 41% Cards: 1 - 2

0:2

Aug 9, 2024 Premier Division

Derry City vs Dundalk

Possession: 47% - 53% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Horgan D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Arubi G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Dummigan C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 36 / 100

Derry City 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dundalk Derry City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dundalk scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.

Derry City has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Derry City has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS Derry City

1.63 Goals Scored 1.38

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

88% Over 1.5 75%

75% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	25	15	5	5	40:22	50
2	Bohemians	25	12	7	6	40:27	43
3	St. Patricks	24	12	6	6	39:20	42
4	Dundalk	24	9	8	7	38:36	35
5	Shelbourne	24	8	10	6	35:35	34
6	Derry City	25	6	11	8	32:31	29
7	Galway United	23	7	6	10	32:39	27
8	Drogheda	24	6	7	11	29:41	25
9	Waterford	24	4	9	11	33:47	21
10	Sligo Rovers	24	5	5	14	20:40	20