Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dundalk averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Shamrock Rovers averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. In past meetings, Dundalk won 2, Shamrock Rovers won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 15, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Dundalk and 1.19 for Shamrock Rovers. This points to a Shamrock Rovers double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Dundalk
24%
Draws
41%
Shamrock Rovers
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Shamrock Rovers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Dundalk picked up more points recently compared to Shamrock Rovers.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 20%
Shamrock Rovers Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Shamrock Rovers
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 17
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.75 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.39 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
1:0
Feb 23, 2026 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
0:1
Jul 4, 2024 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
1:0
May 17, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Wilson T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shamrock Rovers Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 36 / 100
Shamrock Rovers 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Shamrock Rovers

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Shamrock Rovers or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dundalk attacking → ← attacking Shamrock Rovers

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Shamrock Rovers let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Dundalk went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Shamrock Rovers lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 56
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720