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Dundalk vs Shelbourne

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Premier Division encounter between Dundalk and Shelbourne promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Dundalk averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Shelbourne shows a form average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Dundalk, 3 wins for Shelbourne, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 01.05.26 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.31 for Dundalk and 1.25 for Shelbourne, suggesting the primary value lies in the Dundalk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Dundalk
33%
Draws
32%
Shelbourne
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Dundalk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Dundalk picked up more points recently compared to Shelbourne.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 19%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Shelbourne
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 12
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.78 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

01.05.26 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shelbourne
1:2
03.04.26 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:3
20.01.26 Club Friendly
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:1
01.02.25 Club Friendly
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
0:0
30.08.24 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shelbourne
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Dundalk

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Shelbourne

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Shelbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelly D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader McInroy K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 35 / 100
Shelbourne 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Shelbourne

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dundalk or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Dundalk 39%
Shelbourne 26%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Dundalk 33%
Shelbourne 34%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Dundalk 35%
Shelbourne 32%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Dundalk 37%
Shelbourne 30%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Dundalk 32%
Shelbourne 35%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Dundalk 40%
Shelbourne 37%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dundalk attacking → ← attacking Shelbourne

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk have found the net in 93% of their last 27 matches.

Shelbourne have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their last 28 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.40 goals per match.

Dundalk remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Shelbourne suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 42
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers24145538:2147
2Bohemians24117638:2740
3St. Patricks22115635:1938
4Dundalk2298536:3235
5Shelbourne23710633:3431
6Derry City24611730:2729
7Galway United2166929:3424
8Drogheda22571027:3822
9Sligo Rovers22551217:3520
10Waterford22381128:4417