Sport Picks

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Dundalk vs Shelbourne

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park, Dundalk
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Odubeko M.
12' Event
Teahan R.
Assist: Clarke T.
16'
Sub
Beach E. In: Walsh C.
Out: Beach E.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Division game between Dundalk and Shelbourne finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shelbourne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Dundalk
30%
Draws
39%
Shelbourne
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shelbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dundalk come out ahead of Shelbourne on wins alone.
  • Shelbourne are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Shelbourne here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 19%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Shelbourne
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.87 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shelbourne
2:3
Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:1
May 1, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shelbourne
1:2
Apr 3, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:3
Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Teahan R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader McDaid D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Shelbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Boyd S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Moore S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 24 / 100
Shelbourne 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Shelbourne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shelbourne Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dundalk scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Shelbourne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Dundalk stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS Shelbourne
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dundalk

(Home)
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3
Dundalk
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Shelbourne

(Away)
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Shelbourne
1 : 2
Drogheda
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0
Shelbourne
28 Aug
Galway United
1 : 1
Shelbourne
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 49:31 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 55:37 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 49:53 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 42:45 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 42:48 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 32 8 10 14 38:51 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)