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Dundalk vs Waterford

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park, Dundalk
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Kenny E.
Assist: Horgan D.
29' Event
Groome H.
Assist: Horgan D.
45' Event
Lonergan T.
Assist: Couto B.

AI Match Summary

Waterford in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waterford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Dundalk
20%
Draws
52%
Waterford
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Waterford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dundalk lately — more wins on the board than Waterford.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 15%
Waterford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Waterford
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.86 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Waterford
2:3
May 4, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Dundalk
3:3
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Waterford
5:0
Sep 13, 2024 Premier Division
Waterford vs Dundalk
2:1
Jun 28, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Waterford
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenny E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Groome H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Waterford Compare

Top Goalscorer Lonergan T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mahon J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 30 / 100
Waterford 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Waterford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dundalk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Defensive concern: Waterford conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Dundalk went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS Waterford
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dundalk

(Home)
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3
Dundalk
21 Aug
Dundalk
1 : 2
Galway United
15 Aug
Dundalk
8 : 0
Castlebar Celtic
07 Aug
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Dundalk
31 Jul
Dundalk
1 : 1
Sligo Rovers
Page 1 of 6

Waterford

(Away)
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
21 Aug
Sligo Rovers
0 : 0
Waterford
14 Aug
Waterford
2 : 1
Athlone
09 Aug
Waterford
3 : 1
Bohemians
02 Aug
Waterford
1 : 0
Shelbourne
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 28 16 7 5 46:27 55
2 St. Patricks 29 14 8 7 45:25 50
3 Bohemians 29 14 8 7 50:34 50
4 Dundalk 29 10 10 9 46:45 40
5 Shelbourne 27 8 11 8 37:39 35
6 Derry City 29 7 13 9 41:40 34
7 Galway United 28 8 10 10 36:42 34
8 Waterford 29 7 11 11 39:48 32
9 Drogheda 29 6 10 13 33:48 28
10 Sligo Rovers 29 5 8 16 23:48 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)