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Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

4' Event
Andinho
90'

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Duque de Caxias.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Duque de Caxias
28%
Draws
50%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Goncalense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Goncalense average 1.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Duque de Caxias's 0.88.
  • Model gives Goncalense a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 23%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Goncalense
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
1:0
May 17, 2025 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
0:2
Jun 29, 2024 Carioca 2
Goncalense vs Duque de Caxias
1:2
Jun 16, 2021 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
2:2
Sep 26, 2020 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Andinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Goncalense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 24 / 100
Goncalense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goncalense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Away concern: Goncalense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Duque de Caxias scored in 45% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Goncalense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Olaria
22 Nov
Bonsucesso
2 : 0
Duque de Caxias
15 Nov
Duque de Caxias
1 : 0
Bonsucesso
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
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Goncalense

(Away)
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
05 Nov
Goncalense
1 : 0
Artsul
01 Nov
Bonsucesso
1 : 1
Goncalense
25 Oct
Serrano FC
2 : 1
Goncalense
18 Oct
Goncalense
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)