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Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

4' Event
Andinho
90'

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Duque de Caxias.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Duque de Caxias
20%
Draws
38%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Duque de Caxias have won more games recently than Goncalense.
  • Model gives Duque de Caxias a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Goncalense
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.9 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
1:0
May 17, 2025 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
0:2
Jun 29, 2024 Carioca 2
Goncalense vs Duque de Caxias
1:2
Jun 16, 2021 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
2:2
Sep 26, 2020 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Goncalense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Andinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Goncalense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 46 / 100
Goncalense 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goncalense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Duque de Caxias remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Duque de Caxias scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Goncalense
1 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
26 Sept
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Niteroiense
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
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Goncalense

(Away)
26 Sept
Goncalense
3 : 2
Audax RJ
19 Sept
Goytacaz
0 : 2
Goncalense
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 0
Goncalense
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)