Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Duque de Caxias vs Madureira

Brazil Brazil

Copa Rio 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Own Goal
78' Event
de Souza S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Madureira advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Duque de Caxias
30%
Draws
18%
Madureira
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Duque de Caxias come out ahead of Madureira on wins alone.
  • Duque de Caxias are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Duque de Caxias have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Madureira, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%
Madureira Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Madureira
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 0.96 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.26 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2025 Copa Rio
Madureira vs Duque de Caxias
0:1
Jul 30, 2025 Copa Rio
Duque de Caxias vs Madureira
0:2
Aug 9, 2014 Serie C
Duque de Caxias vs Madureira
1:1
Apr 26, 2014 Serie C
Madureira vs Duque de Caxias
2:0
Feb 5, 2014 Carioca
Duque de Caxias vs Madureira
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.63

Madureira Compare

Top Goalscorer de Souza S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 86 / 100
Madureira 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Madureira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Duque de Caxias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madureira's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Duque de Caxias remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Duque de Caxias scored in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Madureira
1.14 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
57% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Olaria
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Madureira

(Away)
23 Sept
Madureira
0 : 2
Sampaio Correa FE
16 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 1
Madureira
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0
Boavista
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0
Madureira
12 Aug
Madureira
1 : 1
Portuguesa RJ
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
CEAC/Araruama 3
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Cabofriense 2
Boavista 1
America RJ 2
Audax RJ 0
Goncalense 0
Marica 3
Duque de Caxias 1
Madureira 2
Campo Grande 0
Bangu 3
Resende 2
Portuguesa RJ 3
Quarter-finals
CEAC/Araruama 3
Nova Iguacu 2
Cabofriense 2
America RJ 5
Marica 6
Madureira 1
Bangu 0
Portuguesa RJ 1
Semi-finals
CEAC/Araruama 0
America RJ 1
Marica 1
Portuguesa RJ 3
Final
America RJ 1
Portuguesa RJ 2