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Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Paulo M.
55' Event
Paulo M.
90'

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias in this Carioca B1 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Duque de Caxias.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Duque de Caxias
15%
Draws
26%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Duque de Caxias lately — more wins on the board than Nova Cidade.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Duque de Caxias here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 20%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Nova Cidade
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade
3:0
Nov 1, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade
2:2
Oct 3, 2020 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigo Fumaca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nova Cidade Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 32 / 100
Nova Cidade 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Cidade has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Recent resilience: Duque de Caxias stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Nova Cidade registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Nova Cidade
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
26 Sept
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Niteroiense
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
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Nova Cidade

(Away)
26 Sept
Nova Cidade
1 : 2
Goytacaz
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Niteroiense 4 3 1 0 6:1 10
2 Duque de Caxias 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 Goncalense 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
4 Artsul 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
5 Campo Grande 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
6 Goytacaz 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
7 Sao Cristovao 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
8 Serrano FC 4 1 2 1 2:3 5
9 Macae 4 1 1 2 3:3 4
10 Nova Cidade 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
11 AA Carapebus 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
12 Audax RJ 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - Carioca B1 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2027 (Main)