Sport Picks
Match Events
32'
32'
Beto
66'
66'
Costa P.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 0-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Duque de Caxias
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Duque de Caxias lately — more wins on the board than Olaria.
- Model gives Duque de Caxias a 51% chance of winning this.
- Duque de Caxias have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Olaria, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%
Olaria Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Duque de Caxias | Olaria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 23, 2026 Copa Rio
Olaria vs Duque de Caxias
4:0
Jun 17, 2026 Copa Rio
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
0:2
May 31, 2025 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
3:2
Aug 11, 2024 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Duque de Caxias
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Duque de Caxias Compare
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58
Olaria Compare
Top Goalscorer Beto
1 Goals Assists Leader Costa P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.67
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Duque de Caxias 50 / 100
Olaria 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Duque de Caxias Olaria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Duque de Caxias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Duque de Caxias stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Duque de Caxias found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Olaria conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Duque de Caxias VS Olaria
1.33 Goals Scored 1.25
1.17 Goals Conceded 1
67% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Duque de Caxias
(Home) 19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1 Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4 Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0 Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0 Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2 Olaria
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05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0 Nova Cidade
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2 Olaria
15 Nov
Duque de Caxias
1 : 0 Bonsucesso
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2 Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Duque de Caxias
2 : 1 Paduano EC
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Olaria
(Away) 12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0 Olaria
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1 Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0 Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6
12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0 Olaria
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1 Olaria
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0 Olaria
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2 Olaria
06 Jun
Sao Goncalo
0 : 0 Olaria
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 1
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 1
