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Duque de Caxias vs Paduano EC

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Andinho
60' Event
Araujo J.
87' Event
Nathan

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Duque de Caxias.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Duque de Caxias
15%
Draws
37%
Paduano EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Duque de Caxias have won more games recently than Paduano EC.
  • Win probability leans Duque de Caxias's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Paduano EC
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 0.96 1
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Paduano EC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Andinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nathan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Paduano EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 50 / 100
Paduano EC 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Paduano EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Duque de Caxias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paduano EC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 26 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Duque de Caxias has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Duque de Caxias found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Paduano EC
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Olaria
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Paduano EC

(Away)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)