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Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 VTB Arena
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AI Match Summary

Dynamo Moscow play Spartak Moscow in the Russian Cup 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dynamo Moscow averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Spartak Moscow averaged 1.66 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Dynamo Moscow won 2, Spartak Moscow won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 18, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Dynamo Moscow and 1.25 for Spartak Moscow. This points to a Spartak Moscow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Dynamo Moscow
27%
Draws
40%
Spartak Moscow
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Spartak Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Dynamo Moscow picked up more points recently compared to Spartak Moscow.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Dynamo Moscow Clean Sheet 19%
Spartak Moscow Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dynamo Moscow Spartak Moscow
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 19
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.61 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Russian Cup
Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
1:0
Mar 5, 2026 Russian Cup
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
5:2
Dec 6, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
2:2
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dynamo Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Moumi Ngamaleu N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader David Ricardo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Spartak Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Ugalde M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martins C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dynamo Moscow 34 / 100
Spartak Moscow 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dynamo Moscow Spartak Moscow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Spartak Moscow or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dynamo Moscow attacking → ← attacking Spartak Moscow

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dynamo Moscow scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Spartak Moscow let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Dynamo Moscow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Spartak Moscow lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 62
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88