Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Eastleigh vs Carlisle

England England

National League Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Sub
Akoto N. In: Rankine D.
Out: Akoto N.
44' Event
Blair A.
Assist: Lundstram J.
46'
Sub
Ajiboye D. In: Luamba J.
Out: Ajiboye D.

AI Match Summary

Eastleigh in this National League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Eastleigh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Eastleigh
30%
Draws
23%
Carlisle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Eastleigh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Carlisle have won more games recently than Eastleigh.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Eastleigh Clean Sheet 14%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Eastleigh Carlisle
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 7 12
Draws 4 7
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 1.04 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 National League
Eastleigh vs Carlisle
1:0
Feb 28, 2026 National League
Eastleigh vs Carlisle
1:2
Nov 15, 2025 National League
Carlisle vs Eastleigh
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Eastleigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Blair A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Carlisle Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Eastleigh 30 / 100
Carlisle 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Eastleigh Carlisle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eastleigh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Eastleigh found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Carlisle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Carlisle's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Eastleigh VS Carlisle
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Eastleigh

(Home)
26 Sept
Harrogate
4 : 1
Eastleigh
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
15 Sept
Sutton
2 : 1
Eastleigh
12 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 1
Boreham Wood
04 Sept
Altrincham
2 : 1
Eastleigh
Page 1 of 6

Carlisle

(Away)
26 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 5
Woking
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
15 Sept
Carlisle
1 : 1
Forest Green
12 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 2
Southend
05 Sept
Boreham Wood
2 : 1
Carlisle
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boreham Wood 11 9 2 0 29:12 29
2 Harrogate 11 7 1 3 25:17 22
3 Altrincham 11 7 0 4 16:15 21
4 Southend 10 6 2 2 25:16 20
5 AFC Fylde 11 6 2 3 21:15 20
6 Yeovil 11 5 4 2 20:15 19
7 Aldershot 11 5 3 3 16:10 18
8 Worthing FC 11 5 3 3 20:17 18
9 Kidderminster 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
10 Hornchurch 11 6 0 5 13:16 18
11 Sutton 10 5 2 3 13:13 17
12 Barrow 11 4 3 4 18:14 15
13 Forest Green 11 4 3 4 17:18 15
14 Halifax 11 4 2 5 16:14 14
15 Eastleigh 10 4 2 4 12:14 14
16 Carlisle 11 3 4 4 20:19 13
17 Wealdstone 11 3 3 5 16:16 12
18 Woking 11 3 3 5 17:18 12
19 Boston United 11 3 3 5 14:15 12
20 Scunthorpe 11 3 1 7 15:19 10
21 Hartlepool 11 3 0 8 8:16 9
22 Tamworth 10 2 2 6 17:28 8
23 Solihull Moors 11 2 1 8 13:28 7
24 Gateshead 11 1 1 9 6:25 4
Promotion - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs)