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EC Guarani vs EC Novo Horizonte

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Gaucho 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

EC Guarani play EC Novo Horizonte in the Gaucho 3. EC Guarani are favorites here. Recently, EC Guarani averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. EC Novo Horizonte averaged 0.13 goals scored and 2.88 conceded. In past meetings, EC Guarani won 2, EC Novo Horizonte won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 16, 2025 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.88 for EC Guarani and 0.26 for EC Novo Horizonte. This points to a EC Guarani double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
EC Guarani
24%
Draws
11%
EC Novo Horizonte
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: EC Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • EC Guarani picked up more points recently compared to EC Novo Horizonte.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.88 vs 0.26 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%
EC Guarani Clean Sheet 34%
EC Novo Horizonte Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Guarani EC Novo Horizonte
Matches Played 30 8
Wins 14 0
Draws 7 2
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.57 0.13
Goals Conceded 0.97 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2025 Gaucho 3
EC Novo Horizonte vs EC Guarani
0:3
Sep 28, 2025 Gaucho 3
EC Guarani vs EC Novo Horizonte
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucao
3 Goals
Assists Leader Britto M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

EC Novo Horizonte Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Guarani 65 / 100
EC Novo Horizonte 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Guarani EC Novo Horizonte

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Guarani Win (1)
Secondary Pick EC Guarani & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.7%
1.75
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

EC Guarani attacking → ← attacking EC Novo Horizonte

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Guarani scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

EC Novo Horizonte let in goals in 88% of their last 8 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

EC Guarani went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

EC Novo Horizonte lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 2
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.13
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1EC Guarani880025:324
2Apafut842218:1016
3Clube 199281438:149
4Nova Prata822410:128
5EC Novo Horizonte80261:230
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1SC Sao Paulo651011:116
2SC Rio Grande63036:69
3Riograndense622211:38
4Sao Gabriel60152:201