Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EC Sao Bernardo vs Comercial

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar, Sao Paulo
EC Sao Bernardo Logo

EC Sao Bernardo

Sat, Sep 5, 2026
2 - 1
06:00 PM
Comercial Logo

Comercial

Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Matheus Soldado
90' Event
Claudino F.
(Penalty)
1' Event
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
EC Sao Bernardo
15%
Draws
34%
Comercial
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Comercial have managed 1.06 goals a game lately — EC Sao Bernardo are scoring more at 1.4.
  • EC Sao Bernardo are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor EC Sao Bernardo, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%
Comercial Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Sao Bernardo Comercial
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.4 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Copa Paulista
EC Sao Bernardo vs Comercial
2:1
Aug 31, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:0
Mar 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:0
Mar 19, 2022 Paulista A3
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
4:2
Nov 7, 2020 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Comercial
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Soldado
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Comercial Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Sao Bernardo 59 / 100
Comercial 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Sao Bernardo Comercial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: EC Sao Bernardo scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Comercial's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Comercial's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

EC Sao Bernardo VS Comercial
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

EC Sao Bernardo

(Home)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

Comercial

(Away)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Quarter-finals
Linense 3
Gremio Prudente 4
Juventus-SP 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Sao Jose EC 3
Comercial 0
Noroeste 3
Primavera EC 2
Semi-finals
Gremio Prudente 0
Uniao Sao Joao 0
Sao Jose EC 1
Noroeste 1
Final
TBD -
TBD -