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EC Sao Bernardo vs Lemense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Mayson
34' Event
Alyson Motta
75' Event
Alyson Motta

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 2025 game between EC Sao Bernardo and Lemense finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward EC Sao Bernardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
EC Sao Bernardo
20%
Draws
15%
Lemense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and EC Sao Bernardo come out ahead of Lemense on wins alone.
  • Model gives EC Sao Bernardo a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paulista A3 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%
Lemense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Sao Bernardo Lemense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.41 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2025 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Lemense
2:1
Mar 2, 2024 Paulista A3
Lemense vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:0
Apr 28, 2021 Paulista A2
EC Sao Bernardo vs Lemense
0:0
Jan 23, 2018 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Lemense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Alyson Motta
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Lemense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Sao Bernardo 95 / 100
Lemense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Sao Bernardo Lemense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Sao Bernardo's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Lemense has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

EC Sao Bernardo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

EC Sao Bernardo VS Lemense
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

EC Sao Bernardo

(Home)
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
01 Aug
Sao Caetano
1 : 4
EC Sao Bernardo
25 Jul
Sao Jose EC
2 : 1
EC Sao Bernardo
19 Jul
EC Sao Bernardo
3 : 1
Santo Andre
04 Apr
Marilia
3 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
Page 1 of 6

Lemense

(Away)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monte Azul 15 8 6 1 27:14 30
2 Marilia 15 8 4 3 24:17 28
3 Desportivo 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
4 Sertaozinho 15 6 7 2 14:8 25
5 Catanduva FC 15 7 3 5 17:17 24
6 Rio Branco SP 15 6 5 4 25:15 23
7 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 18:13 22
8 Itapirense 15 6 2 7 14:13 20
9 Rio Preto EC 15 5 5 5 12:14 20
10 Uniao Suzano 15 5 2 8 15:22 17
11 XV de Jau 15 4 5 6 9:12 17
12 Francana 15 3 8 4 17:19 17
13 EC Sao Bernardo 15 3 7 5 11:15 16
14 Bandeirante 15 4 3 8 12:20 15
15 Lemense 15 3 4 8 12:21 13
16 Comercial 15 2 5 8 8:18 11
Promotion - Paulista A3 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 (Main)