Sport Picks
Match Events
21'
21'
Joaninha
36'
36'
Gustavo Franca
45'
45'
Diego Lanzarini
AI Match Summary
EC Sao Bernardo in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored EC Sao Bernardo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- EC Sao Bernardo have won more games recently than Rio Branco SP.
- EC Sao Bernardo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 3 times recently and EC Sao Bernardo have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%
Rio Branco SP Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EC Sao Bernardo | Rio Branco SP |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 5 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.92 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Rio Branco SP
4:0
Jan 18, 2025 Paulista A3
Rio Branco SP vs EC Sao Bernardo
3:1
Jan 20, 2018 Paulista A3
Rio Branco SP vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EC Sao Bernardo Compare
Top Goalscorer Joaninha
1 Goals Assists Leader Gustavo Franca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96
Rio Branco SP Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EC Sao Bernardo 95 / 100
Rio Branco SP 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EC Sao Bernardo Rio Branco SP
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: EC Sao Bernardo scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Rio Branco SP has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Rio Branco SP lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
EC Sao Bernardo VS Rio Branco SP
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.2
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 40%
Recent Form & Match History
EC Sao Bernardo
(Home) 05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3 Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0 Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3 Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0 Sao Caetano
19 Jul
EC Sao Bernardo
3 : 1 Santo Andre
28 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0 Marilia
Page 1 of 3
Rio Branco SP
(Away) 21 Mar
Rio Branco SP
0 : 2 Bandeirante
14 Mar
Uniao Suzano
1 : 2 Rio Branco SP
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2 Itapirense
07 Mar
Rio Branco SP
0 : 2 Marilia
04 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
4 : 0 Rio Branco SP
Page 1 of 6
14 Mar
Uniao Suzano
1 : 2 Rio Branco SP
04 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
4 : 0 Rio Branco SP
25 Feb
Francana
0 : 1 Rio Branco SP
14 Feb
Desportivo
1 : 1 Rio Branco SP
04 Feb
Rio Claro
3 : 1 Rio Branco SP
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 26:9 | 36 |
| 2 | Marilia | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 23:6 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto EC | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24:13 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 16:11 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19:16 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16:14 | 24 |
| 7 | EC Sao Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:15 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20:13 | 23 |
| 9 | Uniao Sao Joao | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:15 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva FC | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 16:15 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 13:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 13:22 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14:26 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8:25 | 8 |
| 16 | Uniao Suzano | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10:28 | 5 |
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)
