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Ecuador U20 vs Dominican Republic U20

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Friendly International 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ecuador U20 play Dominican Republic U20 in the Friendly International 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ecuador U20 averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. Dominican Republic U20 averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Ecuador U20 won 1, Dominican Republic U20 won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 14, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.07 for Ecuador U20 and 1.56 for Dominican Republic U20. This points to a Dominican Republic U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Ecuador U20
15%
Draws
44%
Dominican Republic U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dominican Republic U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Ecuador U20 picked up more points recently compared to Dominican Republic U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.07 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Ecuador U20 Clean Sheet 15%
Dominican Republic U20 Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ecuador U20 Dominican Republic U20
Matches Played 25 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 6 1
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.4 2.23
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2023 Friendly International
Ecuador U20 vs Dominican Republic U20
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ecuador U20 40 / 100
Dominican Republic U20 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ecuador U20 Dominican Republic U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dominican Republic U20 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ecuador U20 attacking → ← attacking Dominican Republic U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ecuador U20 scored in 72% of their last 25 games.

Dominican Republic U20 let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Ecuador U20 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dominican Republic U20 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 46
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.86
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14