Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ecuador vs Panama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Kirin Cup (Japan) New National Stadium, Tokyo
Mon, Oct 5, 2026
1 - 2
06:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Vergara J.
44'
Carrasquilla A.
46'
Sub
Alcivar J. In: Vite P.
Out: Alcivar J.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ecuador
15%
Draws
49%
Panama
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Panama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Panama have won more games recently than Ecuador.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Panama arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ecuador, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 20%
Panama Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ecuador Panama
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 13 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 0.9 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Kirin Cup (Japan)
Ecuador vs Panama
1:2
Nov 21, 2018 Friendly International
Panama vs Ecuador
1:2
Jun 6, 2015 Friendly International
Ecuador vs Panama
4:0
Jun 4, 2015 Friendly International
Panama vs Ecuador
1:1
Jan 28, 2005 Friendly International
Ecuador vs Panama
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ecuador Compare

Top Goalscorer Angulo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Panama Compare

Top Goalscorer Vergara J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ecuador 32 / 100
Panama 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ecuador Panama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Panama let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Panama's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Ecuador found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Ecuador VS Panama
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ecuador

(Home)
05 Oct
Ecuador
1 : 2
Panama
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
24 Sept
South Korea
3 : 0
Ecuador
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
Page 1 of 6

Panama

(Away)
05 Oct
Ecuador
1 : 2
Panama
01 Oct
Panama
1 : 2
New Zealand
25 Sept
India
1 : 1
Panama
27 Jun
Panama
0 : 2
England
23 Jun
Panama
0 : 1
Croatia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Japan 1
Ecuador 0
Panama 1
New Zealand 2
Final
Japan 2
New Zealand 1
Ecuador 1
Panama 2