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Egypt U23 vs Mali U23 Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations U23 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Adel I.
Assist: Faisal O.
18'
Abdelmaguid H.
40'
Diambou M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Egypt U23 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Egypt U23
30%
Draws
37%
Mali U23
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Egypt U23 come out ahead of Mali U23 on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mali U23's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Egypt U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Egypt U23, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Egypt U23 have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Egypt U23 Clean Sheet 14%
Mali U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Egypt U23 Mali U23
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 21 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.37 1.64
Goals Conceded 0.66 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations U23
Egypt U23 vs Mali U23
1:0
Nov 8, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations U23
Egypt U23 vs Mali U23
1:0
Dec 5, 2015 Africa Cup of Nations U23
Egypt U23 vs Mali U23
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Egypt U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Adel I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mali U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Egypt U23 15 / 100
Mali U23 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Egypt U23 Mali U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Egypt U23 scored in 80% of their last 35 outings.

Mali U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Egypt U23 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Egypt U23 VS Mali U23
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Egypt U23

(Home)
17 Jul
Egypt U23
2 : 1
Iraq U23
14 Jul
Ukraine U23
1 : 1
Egypt U23
11 Jun
Egypt U23
2 : 1
Ivory Coast U23
07 Jun
Egypt U23
1 : 0
Ivory Coast U23
26 Mar
Egypt U23
2 : 3
Saudi Arabia U23
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Mali U23

(Away)
01 Oct
Morocco U23
1 : 1
Mali U23
18 Nov
Indonesia U23
2 : 2
Mali U23
15 Nov
Indonesia U23
0 : 3
Mali U23
19 Jul
FC Bobigny 93
0 : 3
Mali U23
06 Jul
Mali U23
1 : 0
Mali U20
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco U23 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
2 Guinea U23 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
3 Ghana U23 3 1 1 1 5:8 4
4 Congo U23 3 0 0 3 3:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations U23 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt U23 3 2 1 0 3:0 7
2 Mali U23 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
3 Niger U23 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
4 Gabon U23 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations U23 2023 (Play Offs)