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EI San Martin vs Covadonga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

EI San Martin host Covadonga in the Tercera RFEF - Group 2. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. EI San Martin have averaged 0.9 scored and 1.03 conceded recently, against Covadonga's 2.46 scored and 1 conceded. Past meetings favor Covadonga slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 8, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.50 xG vs 1.19) point toward Covadonga. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
EI San Martin
30%
Draws
51%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Covadonga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Covadonga a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
EI San Martin Clean Sheet 20%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EI San Martin Covadonga
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 11 24
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.9 2.46
Goals Conceded 1.03 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
0:2
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs EI San Martin
3:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs EI San Martin
1:1
Dec 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
1:0
Mar 6, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EI San Martin 10 / 100
Covadonga 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EI San Martin Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Covadonga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: EI San Martin stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: EI San Martin scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Covadonga let in goals in 51% of their last 37 matches.

Scoring Trends

EI San Martin VS Covadonga
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

EI San Martin

(Home)
03 Oct
Union Club Ceares
1 : 2
EI San Martin
27 Sept
EI San Martin
2 : 2
Astur
20 Sept
Andes CF
1 : 1
EI San Martin
13 Sept
EI San Martin
0 : 4
Condal
06 Sept
Gijon Industrial
2 : 0
EI San Martin
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Covadonga

(Away)
04 Oct
Covadonga
2 : 1
Club Siero
26 Sept
CD Colunga
1 : 2
Covadonga
20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Caudal Deportivo
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2
Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Covadonga 5 4 1 0 14:4 13
2 Gijon B 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
3 CD Mosconia 5 3 2 0 8:1 11
4 Condal 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
5 CD Colunga 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
6 Caudal Deportivo 5 3 1 1 8:6 10
7 Club Siero 5 3 0 2 6:3 9
8 Langreo 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
9 Gijon Industrial 5 2 1 2 8:6 7
10 Lealtad 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
11 EI San Martin 5 1 2 2 5:10 5
12 Praviano 5 1 1 3 6:8 4
13 L Entregu CF 5 1 1 3 2:6 4
14 Union Club Ceares 5 1 0 4 7:11 3
15 Llanes 5 0 3 2 6:12 3
16 Aviles Stadium 5 1 0 4 2:9 3
17 Astur 5 0 2 3 3:8 2
18 Andes CF 5 0 1 4 2:9 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 (Play Offs)