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Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Praviano

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 2 encounter between EI San Martin and Praviano promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. EI San Martin averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent matches. Praviano shows a form average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for EI San Martin, 1 wins for Praviano, and 4 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 01.03.26 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.13 for EI San Martin and 1.00 for Praviano, suggesting the primary value lies in the EI San Martin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

EI San Martin

35%

Draws

29%

Praviano

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: EI San Martin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

EI San Martin picked up more points recently compared to Praviano.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 52%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

EI San Martin Clean Sheet 23%

Praviano Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 47%

Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	EI San Martin	Praviano
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	8	6
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1.1	1.07
Goals Conceded	0.97	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

01.03.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

EI San Martin vs Praviano

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

19.10.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Praviano vs EI San Martin

Possession: 53% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

0:0

30.03.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

EI San Martin vs Praviano

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

17.11.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Praviano vs EI San Martin

Possession: 50% - 50% Cards: 4 - 1

0:0

15.01.22 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

EI San Martin vs Praviano

Possession: 60% - 49% Cards: 4 - 1

0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

EI San Martin

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Praviano

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EI San Martin Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A

0 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Praviano Compare

Top Goalscorer Iza D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EI San Martin 37 / 100

Praviano 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

EI San Martin Praviano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: EI San Martin or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

EI San Martin 40%

Praviano 23%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

EI San Martin 34%

Praviano 30%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

EI San Martin 36%

Praviano 29%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

EI San Martin 38%

Praviano 28%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

EI San Martin 32%

Praviano 32%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

EI San Martin 41%

Praviano 33%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

EI San Martin attacking → ← attacking Praviano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EI San Martin have found the net in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Praviano have conceded at least one goal in 60% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 0.60 goals per match.

EI San Martin remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Praviano suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 39

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llanera	34	29	4	1	71:18	91
2	Covadonga	34	25	5	4	88:24	80
3	Gijon B	34	19	10	5	79:29	67
4	Caudal Deportivo	34	20	6	8	59:39	66
5	CD Mosconia	34	16	7	11	46:29	55
6	EI San Martin	34	14	9	11	36:36	51
7	L Entregu CF	34	13	10	11	41:42	49
8	Union Club Ceares	34	12	9	13	39:40	45
9	Praviano	34	11	9	14	36:42	42
10	Club Siero	34	11	8	15	39:49	41
11	CD Colunga	34	10	9	15	38:59	39
12	Llanes	34	8	13	13	44:51	37
13	Aviles Stadium	34	6	15	13	21:40	33
14	Gijon Industrial	34	7	11	16	36:57	32
15	Lenense	34	7	11	16	36:58	32
16	Navarro	34	6	13	15	38:53	31
17	Tuilla	34	7	6	21	31:60	27
18	Real Titanico	34	3	9	22	22:74	18