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Ekenas IF vs TPS

Finland Finland

Suomen Cup Ekenas Sparbank Arena TN
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ekenas IF play TPS in the Suomen Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ekenas IF averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.96 conceded. TPS averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Ekenas IF won 1, TPS won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 15, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Ekenas IF and 1.25 for TPS. This points to a Ekenas IF double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ekenas IF
15%
Draws
42%
TPS
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ekenas IF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Ekenas IF picked up more points recently compared to TPS.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Ekenas IF Clean Sheet 19%
TPS Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ekenas IF TPS
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 11 12
Draws 3 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.71 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 Suomen Cup
Ekenas IF vs TPS
1:2
Mar 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Ekenas IF vs TPS
2:0
Sep 5, 2025 Ykkosliiga
TPS vs Ekenas IF
4:0
Jul 25, 2025 Ykkosliiga
Ekenas IF vs TPS
0:2
Jun 2, 2025 Ykkosliiga
TPS vs Ekenas IF
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ekenas IF Compare

Top Goalscorer Helander L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

TPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsirigotis T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karkulowski T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ekenas IF 43 / 100
TPS 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ekenas IF TPS

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ekenas IF or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ekenas IF attacking → ← attacking TPS

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ekenas IF scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

TPS let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Ekenas IF went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

TPS lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 42
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88