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El-Ahli Atbara vs Al Mourada

Sudan Sudan

Premier League 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

El-Ahli Atbara play Al Mourada in the Premier League 2018/2019. Al Mourada are favorites here. Recently, El-Ahli Atbara averaged 0.91 goals scored and 2.19 conceded. Al Mourada averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, El-Ahli Atbara won 2, Al Mourada won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 11, 2019 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for El-Ahli Atbara and 1.00 for Al Mourada. This points to a Al Mourada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
El-Ahli Atbara
25%
Draws
60%
Al Mourada
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Al Mourada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • El-Ahli Atbara picked up more points recently compared to Al Mourada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
El-Ahli Atbara Clean Sheet 23%
Al Mourada Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El-Ahli Atbara Al Mourada
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 0.91 0.8
Goals Conceded 2.19 1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2019 Premier League
El-Ahli Atbara vs Al Mourada
2:1
Nov 21, 2013 Premier League
Al Mourada vs El-Ahli Atbara
1:1
May 22, 2013 Premier League
El-Ahli Atbara vs Al Mourada
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El-Ahli Atbara 18 / 100
Al Mourada 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El-Ahli Atbara Al Mourada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Mourada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Al Mourada & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

El-Ahli Atbara attacking → ← attacking Al Mourada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El-Ahli Atbara scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Al Mourada let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

El-Ahli Atbara went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Al Mourada lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 27
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00